It’s never lupus. Lupus is a medical phenomenon where antibodies that are supposed to attack foreign cells to prevent infections instead see plasma proteins as foreign bodies, leading to a high risk of blood clotting. It is believed that 2% of the population suffer from this disease. The test is 98% accurate if a person actually has the disease. The test is 74% accurate if a person does not have the disease. There is a line from the Fox television show House that is often used after a patient tests positive for lupus: “It’s
never lupus.” Do you think there is truth to this statement? Use appropriate probabilities to support your answer.

Answers

Answer 1

L = person has Lupus

~L = person does not have Lupus

P(L) = 0.02 since 2% of the population has it.

P(~L) = 1 - 0.02 = 0.98, ie 98% of the population does not have it.

------------------

If the person has Lupus, then the test will indicate as such 98% of the time, and do so correctly.

T = person tests positive for Lupus

~T = person tests negative for Lupus

P(T given L) = 0.98

The complement of this is

P(~T given L) = 1 - 0.98 = 0.02 = false negative rate

On the other hand, if a person does not have Lupus, then the test will return negative correctly 74% of the time.

P(~T given ~L) = 0.74

Its complement is

P(T given ~L) = 1 - 0.74 = 0.26 = false positive rate

------------------

Dr House saying "It's never Lupus" can be translated to "If the test is positive, then P(L) = 0"

Phrased another way symbolically:

P(L given T) = 0

-------------------

We'll use Bayes Theorem to determine the value of P(L given T)

In general, Bayes Theorem is

P(A given B) = P(B given A)*P(A)/P(B)

So for this problem, we'll have

P(L given T) = P(T given L)*P(L)/P(T)

We almost have everything needed but we're missing P(T)

So we'll need to use the law of total probability to break that up like so

P(T) = P(T and L) + P(T and ~L)

P(T) = P(T given L)*P(L) + P(T given ~L)*P(~L)

P(T) = 0.98*0.02 + 0.26*0.98

P(T) = 0.2744

-------------------

To recap, we have:

P(T given L) = 0.98P(L) = 0.02P(T) = 0.2744

We finally have all the info needed to get the probability we're after.

P(L given T) = P(T given L)*P(L)/P(T)

P(L given T) = 0.98*0.02/0.2744

P(L given T) = 0.07142857142858 approximately

What does this tell us? It says that if a patient gets a positive test for lupus, then there's roughly a 7% chance the test is correct, and the person actually has lupus.

So it's likely Dr House is onto something. The reason why the small result is because a small percentage of the population has the disease.

Also, notice how the false positive rate P(T given ~L) = 0.26 = 26% is fairly high. This also provides more evidence to Dr House's claim.

To be entirely technically accurate, he shouldn't have used "never" because the result of P(L given T) is not zero. But I think a bit of wiggle room can be had for the interpretation of his words.


Related Questions

pls explain why no pls and thank u​

Answers

Answer:

Step-by-step explanation:

So we have : c + 2.5 < 4.3

And it's asking whether c = 1.8 is a solution.

Substitue c = 1.8 in, we get :

1.8 + 2.5 < 4.3
4.3 < 4.3 (not true)

So, c = 1.8 is NOT a solution.

Answer:

No, because c = 1.8 would be wrong and the real answer would be c < 1.8

Step-by-step explanation:

Please help!

x and y are 2 complementary angles such that Y is 8 degrees larger then X.

Find the value of X

Answers

Answer: x = 41

Step-by-step explanation:

Since x and y are complementary angles, that means x + y = 90 degrees.

We are given that y = x + 8

We can substitue y as x + 8 in the complementary angle equation.

Therefore, we get x + x + 8 = 90

2x = 82

x = 41

A high school has 60 senior girls and 5 are selected to be on Snowcoming court. How
any different Snowcoming courts could be chosen?

Answers

Answer:

12

Step-by-step explanation:

There are 60 girls in total, and 5 got picked. So if you divide 60 by 5, you get the answer 12.

Pls help asap I’ll give brainliest

Answers

Answer:

100 (I believe)

Step-by-step explanation:

The length would be 20
20 x 2 (because we have two sides) is 40

the width would have to be 5 then

5x2 (because we have to sides) is 10

5x4 is 20 (Showing that the length is 4 times the width)

40 + 10 = 50 (Which is the perimeter)

Since we know the length is 20 and the width is 5

we just do

20 * 5 = 100

Answer:

L = 20

Width = 5

Step-by-step explanation:

"The perimeter of the rectangle is equal to 2 times length + 2 times width:

 

P = 2L + 2W

 

We know that length is 4 times the width, so L = 4 W

 

We can now replace l by 4W in the equation of the perimeter:

 

P = 2L + 2W = 50

P = 2(4W) + 2W = 50

P = 8W + 2W = 50

P = 10W =50

 

So W = 50 /10

W = 5

 

And L = 4W

L= 4 (5)

L = 20"

2O × 5 = 100

Find the formula for an arithmetic sequence problems.

Answers

Answer:

The arithmetic sequence formula to find the sum of n terms is given as follows: Sn = n/2 (a1 + an) Where Sn is the sum of n terms of an arithmetic sequence.

Andre is designing a website that will display reviews of school lunches. Each item on the menu is rated from 0 to 5 stars. The main display can only show 6 reviews, so Andre needs to decide how to choose which reviews to show at the top.

1. If each rating also has a sentence or two explaining the rating, what are some good reasons to keep this sample displayed first? What are some good reasons to change the sample that is displayed first?

2. Is the sample representative of the population? Representative Not representative

Answers

Answer:

1. some good reasons are that put the most reviewed lunch at the top and good reasons to change it is that if you change it you could get more reviewers 2. yes it is representative of the population

Step-by-step explanation:

I hope it helps :-)

Reasons to maintain the sample at the top of the display:

The sample offers users a comprehensive perspective of the school lunch alternatives by representing a wide range of menu items and ratings.A variety of favorable and negative assessments are present in the sample, offering a well-rounded viewpoint.The most recent reviews are included in the sample, guaranteeing that the data is accurate.The sample has reviews from a range of students or sources, giving it a more varied viewpoint.

What is Sampling?

Sampling is the process of choosing a portion of a broader group of people or things for research or analysis. Since it is frequently difficult or impossible to test or examine every member of a group, conclusions about the population are instead drawn from a representative sample.

The information provided makes it unclear whether the sample is representative of the population. The sample is more probable to be representative if it was drawn using a random sampling technique and includes a variety of menu items and ratings. However, if the sample wasn't chosen at random or was biased, or if it just included a small portion of the available menu items and ratings, it might not be accurate.

Therefore, reasons to maintain the sample at the top of the display:

The sample offers users a comprehensive perspective of the school lunch alternatives by representing a wide range of menu items and ratings.

Learn more about Sampling, here:

brainly.com/question/29852583

#SPJ2

The sum of two numbers is 32. Their difference is 30. What are the two numbers? Show all work

Answers

Answer:

a=30 , b = 0

Step-by-step explanation:

let the two numbers be represented as a and b

a + b = 30... eqn 1

a - b = 30 ...... eqn 2

we then add the two equations to get values for a and b

a + b + a - b = 30 + 30

a + b + a -b = 60

2a = 60  ( diivide both sides by 2)

a = 30

we then put value for a = 30 into  any of the equations to get b

a + b = 30,    30 + b= 30

b = 30 -30   , b = 0

to confirm if the answers are correct, we insert the values for a and b in the two equations.

a + b = 30..... eqn 1,      30 + 0 = 30

a - b = 30 ...... eqn 2   ,    30 - 0  = 30

From the observation deck of a skyscraper, Madison measures a 67^{\circ} ∘ angle of depression to a ship in the harbor below. If the observation deck is 1143 feet high, what is the horizontal distance from the base of the skyscraper out to the ship? Round your answer to the nearest tenth of a foot if necessary.

Answers

The horizontal distance from the base of the skyscraper out to the ship is 485.2 feet.

What is trigonometric ratio?

Trigonometric ratio is used to show the relationship between the sides and angles of right angled triangle.

Let d represent the horizontal distance from the base of the skyscraper out to the ship. Since the angle of depression is 67°, hence:

Angle = 90 - 67 = 23°

Using trig ratio:

tan(23) = d/1143

d = 485.2 feet

The horizontal distance from the base of the skyscraper out to the ship is 485.2 feet.

Find out more on trigonometric ratio at: https://brainly.com/question/24349828

Answer:

Step-by-step explanation:

The horizontal distance from the base of the skyscraper out to the ship is 485.2 feet.

What is trigonometric ratio?

Trigonometric ratio is used to show the relationship between the sides and angles of right angled triangle.

Let d represent the horizontal distance from the base of the skyscraper out to the ship. Since the angle of depression is 67°, hence:

Angle = 90 - 67 = 23°

Using trig ratio:

tan(23) = d/1143

d = 485.2 feet

The horizontal distance from the base of the skyscraper out to the ship is 485.2 feet.

Determine if the sequence below is arithmetic or geometric and determine the
common difference / ratio in simplest form.
3, 5, 7, ...

Answers

Answer:

Step-by-step explanation:

This is an arithmetic series.

3 , 5 , 7 ,......

Common difference = second term - first term

                                 = 5 - 3

                                  = 2

PLS ANSWER THE FOLLOWING QUESTION AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE
PLSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS

Answers

Answer:

120

Step-by-step explanation:

25 + 35 = 60

60 + 60 = 120

Help me please, I really don't want to fail

Which system of equations has no solution?

Answers

Answer: Top left i'm pretty sure

Step-by-step explanation: Because there isn't a blue line and you need a blue line for it to be an equation

Answer:

Parallel line

Step-by-step explanation:

The parallel line doesn't connect so it a infinite therefore it means its a no solution line

Find the length of AB.

please help!!

Answers

Answer:

8.6 is the answer

Step-by-step explanation:

A = (3,9)

B = (8,2)

d² = (8-3)² + (2-9)²

or, d² = 5² + (-7)²

or, d² = 25 + 49

or, d² = 74

d = 8.6

this is a problem i need help with

Answers

Answer:

He sold 12 phones and 20 watches.

Step-by-step explanation:

X × 10 = 120. Y × 2 = 40

12 × 10 = 120. 20 × 2 = 40

120 + 40 = $160

Answer:

10 times 3= 30 3 times 10=30 so total is 60 3mphones sold 10 watches sold

Step-by-step explanation:

PLEASE HELP WITH THIS ASAP
⚠️Whoever solves this gets marked as Brainleist⚠️​

Answers

a)
The dark rectangle : 6x (square units)
The light rectangle : 5 x 6 = 30 (square units)

b) 2 ways to show the area of the entire figure :

6x + 30 square units (sum of 2 area)

6 x (x+5) (length x width, where the width is 6, and length is x + 5)

Hope it helps :)


Pablo took his $50 gift card to the
toy store. He bought a game for
$24.99. How much money does he have left on his gift card?

Answers

Answer:

$25.01

Step-by-step explanation:

I used simple subtraction:

50 - 24.99 = 25.01

Hope this helps!! :)

Vicki would like to estimate the probability of tails coming up fewer than 2 times in 3 coin flips. To do this, she has a computer randomly select 0 or 1 three times, with 0 representing heads and 1 representing tails. The results of 15 trials are shown in the table. 110 111 000 011 000 010 101 100 000 000 111 101 110 101 111 What is Vicki's estimated probability, based on this simulation? Enter your answer as a fraction, in simplified form, in the box.

Answers

Probability helps us to know the chances of an event occurring. Vicki's estimated probability, based on this simulation is 0.4167.

What is Probability?

The probability helps us to know the chances of an event occurring.

[tex]\rm{Probability=\dfrac{Desired\ Outcomes}{Total\ Number\ of\ outcomes\ possible}[/tex]

As it is given that if the output of the computer is 1, then it represents tails, while the 0 represents the head. Also, the results of 12 trials are 111, 011, 000, 010, 100, 111, 010, 111, 111, 101, 000, 111.

Now, in the set of results, we need to calculate the number of results in which the outcome of tails comes up fewer than 2 times, therefore, we need the output that has 2 or more zeroes in it.

Results with 2 or more zeroes are 000, 010, 100, 010, 000

The number of results with 2 or more zeroes is 5.

The total number of possible results is 12.

The probability That Vicki will get 2 or more heads can be written as,

[tex]\rm{Probability=\dfrac{Desired\ Outcomes}{Total\ Number\ of\ outcomes\ possible}[/tex]

[tex]\rm Probability(2\ or\ more\ zeroes)=\dfrac{\text{Number of results with 2 or more zeroes}}{\text{Total number of possible results}}[/tex]

[tex]\rm Probability(2\ or\ more\ zeroes)=\dfrac{5}{12} = 0.4167[/tex]

Hence, Vicki's estimated probability, based on this simulation is 0.4167.

Learn more about Probability:

https://brainly.com/question/795909

Whats the variable for 4/2 = 3/x

Answers

Answer: 3/2

Step-by-step explanation:

We can cross multiply.

4x = 6.

Divide both sides by 4.

x = 6/4 which simplifies to 3/2

Writing If the measures of two angles of a triangle are 86 and 12°, what is the measure of the third angle? Use pencil and paper. Explain how a straight angle is
related to the angles of a triangle.
The measure of the third angle is

Answers

Answer: 82 degrees

Step-by-step explanation:

The sum of the angles in a triangle is 180 degrees which is a straight angle.

Let the unknown third angle be x.

Therefore, 86 + 12 + x = 180

98 + x = 180

x = 82

3. A wire of length 90 cm is cut into three pieces. The lengths of the pieces are in the ratio 3:5:7. Calculate the length of (a) the longest piece. (b) the difference between the longest and the shortest piece. 3:5:1 Wire length: 90 cm​

Answers

the difference between the longest and the shortest piece

Answer:

Step-by-step explanation:

First, simplify into the parts given by sum of ratio values.

90cm / 15 = 6 cm

(a) longest piece

= 7 x 6 = 42 cm

(b) difference between longest and shortest

shortest = 3 x 6 = 18 cm

Difference = 42 - 18 = 24 cm

Not sure how to do this

Answers

45 i believe it is i may be wrong!!!

The height of a hill, h(x), in a painting can be written as
a function of x, the distance from the left side of the
painting. Both h(x) and x are measured in inches.
What is the height of the hill in the painting 3 inches
from the left side of the picture?
06 inches
n(x) = -
-- }(x)/x = 13)
O 13 inches
O 30 inches
O 150 inches

Answers

The answer is
The second one 30 inches

Please help me, I will give brainliest
Julia has a farm on a rectangular piece of land that is 150 meters long. This area is divided into two parts: A square area where she lives (whose side is the same as the width of the farm), and the remaining area where she grows artichokes. Every week, Julia spends $8 per square meter on the area where she lives and earns $4 per square meter from the area where she grows artichokes. This way, she manages to save some money every week. Write an inequality that models the situation. Use w to represent the width of Julia's farm.

Answers

Answer:

        8w² < 4w(150-w)

Step-by-step explanation:

Square area of  living  : w  · w  =  w²

Money spent : 8 · w²

Square area of  artichokes : (150 - w) · w    

Money earned : 4 · w · (150 - w)

Julia manages to save some money every week. That means that the money earned is bigger than the money spent ( the money spent is less than the money earned)

8 · w² < 4 · w · (150 - w)

You leave a 20% tip of $4.50. How much was the bill?

Answers

Answer:

Rm5.40

Step-by-step explanation:

First, 20/100 × Rm4.50 = Rm0.90. Second, Rm4.50 + Rm 0.90 = Rm5.40

Please give me brainliest hehe.

Answer: 0.90 BUT IF YOU ROUND UP TO HOLE DOLLARS THEN YOUR TIP WOULD BE 1 DOLLAR

Step-by-step explanation: THAT IS YOUR ANSWER HOPE I HELPED :D


Help please Im giving brianless and 100 points to the person who answer and show their work thank you very much

Answers

Answer:

8.5 ft (nearest tenth)

Step-by-step explanation:

To find the depth of the pool at the deep end, we need to find the height of the right triangle with angle 16.5° and add it to 4.5 ft

Base of the triangle = 35 - 9 - 12.5 = 13.5 ft

Use the tan trig ratio:

[tex]\tan(x)=\dfrac{O}{A}[/tex]

where x is the angle, O is the side opposite and angle and A is the side adjacent to the angle in a right triangle.

Given:

x = 16.5°O = h (height)A = 13.5 ft

[tex]\implies\tan(16.5)=\dfrac{h}{13.5}\\\\\implies h= 13.5\tan(16.5)\\\\\implies h = 4.0 \textsf{ ft (nearest tenth)}[/tex]

Therefore, the depth of the pool at the deepest end = 4 + 4.5 = 8.5 ft (nearest tenth)

Base=35-9-12.5=12.5ft=BPerpendicular=p\theta= 16.5°

Now

[tex]\\ \rm\Rrightarrow tan\theta=\dfrac{P}{B}[/tex]

[tex]\\ \rm\Rrightarrow tan16.5=\dfrac{P}{13.5}[/tex]

[tex]\\ \rm\Rrightarrow P=13.5tan16.5[/tex]

[tex]\\ \rm\Rrightarrow P=13.5(0.3)[/tex]

[tex]\\ \rm\Rrightarrow P\approx 4ft[/tex]

anyone?? pls help.........

Answers

Answer

C

Area of a circle is pi r to the power of 2.

so the radius is 6

so pi(6)^2= 36pi

If y=6 when x=15 then which of thr following is the value of x when y=20

Answers

Answer:

if you meant x times y...

15 x 20 is 300.

if you meant x + y...

15 + 20 is 35.

if you meant anything else, please let me know

the way it was written confused me but I tried.

Can someone help with this rq?

Answers

9. P= 3+7+6+5= 21cm
A= 1/2h(a+b)= 1/2*4(3+7)=20cm^2

10. A= 1/2h(a+b)=1/2*18”(22”+37”)= 531

11. P= 10+7+18+8=43
A= 1/2h(a+b)=1/2*6(10+18)= 84

If two angles are supplementary and one of the angles measures 38, what is the measure of the larger angle?​

Answers

Answer:

  142°

Step-by-step explanation:

Angles are supplementary when they total 180°. If one of them is 38°, then the measure of the other angle is ...

  180° -38° = 142°

The larger angle is 142°.

Please answer with steps
|-10k+7|
-------------
3 =4

Answers

-10k + 7
————- =4
3
-10k +7 = 12
-10k = 5
K = -1/2

Charlotte made a bracelet using red, gray, and white beads.

Five-ninths of the bracelet is white.

The rest of the bracelet has an equal amount of red and gray.

How much of Charlotte's bracelet is gray?

Answers

Answer:

2/9

Step-by-step explanation:

5/9 is white,we have 4/9 left. 4/9 ÷ 2 is 2/9

Hope this helps

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